Where Are All The Listeners Going?

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Is this a blip or will it be a trend? When we compare Podtrac’s download numbers, over a three-month period, the numbers have been drastically declining for the majority of the top 10 publishers. Why is that? Is there just too many podcasts to listen to now? Was it the holiday season that had listeners taking a break?

Overall, downloads for the top 10 publishers declined by 10% from November to December.

Let’s take a closer look at the numbers: The top publisher over the past three months was NPR. In October, streams and downloads were 165 million. That number declined to 153.3 million in November and 147.5 million in December. And from November to December the number of shows went from 42 to 46.

iHeartRadio has been the second-biggest publisher for the past three months. iHeart’s unique downloads and streams went from 147.7 million in October to 135.6 million in November to 124 million in December. iHeart also increased its show total (from 126 to 129).

This American Life/Serial was third on the Podtrac chart in October with 49.9 million downloads. In November, that number dropped to 37.2 million. And in December, This American Life/Serial dropped to fifth on the Podtrac chart with downloads of 29.9 million, a loss of 20 million downloads from October. On the positive side, This American Life/Serial only produces three shows.

Wondery was fourth in October with 50 million downloads, fourth in November with 46.5 million, and fourth in December with 39.2 million, a decline of 11 million downloads from October.

PRX was ranked fifth on the Podtrac chart in October with 65 million downloads, fifth in November with 58.8 million, and third in December with 55 million.

From November to December only Barstool Sports (32%) and NPR (3%) saw increases.

So what gives? Are the Podtrac numbers accurate? Is podcasting losing listeners already? Or is this a case of there being too much content and not enough ears? We reached out to Podtrac to get their perspective on their own numbers. They told us the dip looks to be seasonal. “We saw the same thing in December 2017 (down globally 7%) and in December 2016 (down 8%).”

Vice President for Podcaster Relations at Voxnest Rob Greenlee tells PBJ this has nothing to do with podcasting losing listeners. He says listening is actually growing every day. “The data shows podcast listeners over time consume more podcasts as they mature as podcast listeners. Podcasting is a slow audience growth medium. It’s based on word of mouth sharing, and as more quality shows come into production that word of mouth will hopefully grow at a faster rate. So I believe the issue is more about the rate of content growth which has out paced the growth of listeners. The history of the medium has been steady, 2-4+ percent growth in listeners year over year, but over the past 24 months the growth of new content is growing faster than that after taking into account shows podfading. The number of new episodes has close to doubled in 2018. I believe we are seeing a growth in expectation for faster audience growth in the podcasting space then is actually happening. We will get there, but our expectations need a dose of patience.”

Jack Rhysider, host of The Darknet Diaries podcast, spent a lot his time recently research podcast audience sizes, how much money podcasters make on Patreon and how the Apple podcast charts get manipulated. We asked Jack to chime in on this subject. He believes the numbers will return. “A lot of podcast listeners listen on their commute to work. Whether that’s in the car, on a bus, or walking. In the US there are a lot of holidays in November and December and it’s also a time when a lot of people take time off to use up their vacation days or spend time with family. So it’s typical to see a trend down of listeners during the holiday season. I predict these numbers will be back to normal around February as people return to their normal schedule.”

We’ll see what happens when the January numbers come out. If you have an opinion on the numbers, feel free to post it below.

• This story was updated to include a quote from Podtrac

Comments:

Angelo Mandato, CIO Blubrry Podcasting - Jan 4, 2019

We see the same trend at Blubrry Podcasting with November and December numbers lower than October for most shows. This is not a new phenomenon, this is the holiday dip that we observe every year since we started measuring podcasts in 2006. December is the lowest consuming month annually, with the Summer months June-August also having weaker metrics in comparison. This consumption shift during the seasons is not new. Traditional radio and TV figured this out years ago, this is why they strategically place their best shows to air in the strongest months of the year as well as on the strongest day of the week.

Ditto what Angelo said. If you look back at the historical Top 10 Podcast Publisher rankings from Podtrac (podtrac.com/blog) you will see the same trend : December 2017 down 7% from November 2017 and December 2016 down 8% from November 2016.