Podcasts: Radio’s Latest Murder Suspect

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**(By Rick Fink) **Even prior to 1982, when I started in this great medium, radio has been dying. It wasn’t dying of its own accord, it was being stalked. It has always been in the cross-hairs of the next, newer, bigger, shinier, and certainly far better, entertainment and advertising media. Or so they said!

The first murder suspect was TV. Why would anyone ever listen to a radio again when you can watch it all on black and white, and ultimately color, TV. Then it was the 8-track tape player followed by cassette tapes. Back to TV; remember MTV? That for sure was the end of radio! About the same time MTV was introduced, so were CDs. Then it was Walkmans, iPods, satellite radio, streaming, and even social media and Spotify and Pandora. All have been identified as suspected and attempted murderers of radio, either in the entertainment or advertising sense. Now, the newest suspect in radio’s assassination attempt is podcasting. Podcasting, the greatest invention since…the 8-track. Or was it Pandora?

Last week, podcasting was the hot headline. Radio Ink Magazine reported: “Soon Podcasting Will Be Bigger Than Network Radio."

Maybe it’s modesty, or lack of confidence, but radio has never done a great job of promoting itself as a medium. Honestly, I get extremely tired and irritated reading about how every medium is far better than radio and if radio doesn’t change how it operates, it’s dead. That’s BS! Ok, maybe not dead but dying. Again, BS! I am here to proclaim, if Sirius/XM, Facebook, Pandora, or podcasting doesn’t change,_they’re_dead. That is closer to the truth than saying radio is dead.

This past weekend we were playing dominos with my sister as the scorekeeper. Halfway through the game, she proclaimed I was the “loser.” My reply was, I may be behind, but I am not the loser, the game isn’t over. Radio’s first proclamation of death was shortly after 1927 when TV was invented. At one time, over 80% of all college students owned an iPod. Today how many can be found? Recent surveys conclude 51% of the population has listened to a podcast (the key word in this sentence is “a”). Only 51% and the trumpets are being tuned, and radio’s next death march has begun. Are you kidding me? Remember, the game is not over.

Let’s look at some of the facts – or at least statistics – from recent surveys, and my responses:

• 70% of the U.S. population is familiar with the term “podcasting” – up from 64% in 2018 (Infinite Dial 19). My response: cassettes, CDs, iPods, Sirius, and XM all grew at least this fast in their infancy.
• 50% of all U.S. homes are podcast fans (Nielsen, Aug 2017). My response: 50% vs 93% for radio? Not sure how 50% of U.S. homes can be fans, yet only 32% listened to “a” podcast in the last month. Evidently it doesn’t take much to be a fan!
• 51% (144 million) of the U.S. population has listened to a podcast – up from 44% in 2018 (Infinite Dial 19). My response: listened to “a” podcast – EVER! C’mon, man!
• 32% (90 million) listened to a podcast in the last month – up from 26% in 2018 (Infinite Dial 19). My response: in the last month – only 32% and it’s going to be bigger than radio?Again, c’mon, man!
• 22% (62 million) listen to podcasts weekly – up from 17% in 2018 (Infinite Dial 19). My response:m y two grandbabies grew more the 30% last year.
• 16 million people in the U.S. are “avid podcast fans” (Nielsen Q1 2018). My response: Wow – is that really something to cheer about for a medium that has been around since 2004?

Today, they claim there are over 660,000 podcasts in the U.S. alone. As recent as June of 2018, there were 550,000; that’s a growth of 110,000 in eight months, or 13,750 new podcasts per month. Simple math will tell you if you have 90 million people that listen to podcasts each month, and there are 660,000 podcasts, that the average episode has approximately 136 listeners per episode. You can twist these numbers a hundred different ways, but the fact of the matter is there are very few podcasts that are doing well. Most have very few listeners. As with everything, only the cream of the crop will float to the top.

With all this said, I really don’t have a problem with podcasting. It’s all the hype it receives that frustrates me. Podcasting has its place and will be here for the long haul. More and more people will become “listeners” of podcasts. In fact, I will go so far as to say maybe 75% of the population within five years will have listened to “a” podcast. Let the ticker-tape parade begin! But I am also willing to say that radio will still have approximately 90-93% of the total population listening every week. Not, one time “a” month.

This is not to say that the radio industry doesn’t need to continue to evolve and get better. We absolutely do. Like every industry, large or small, getting better every day is a must. But we cannot lose sight of what radio does best. Trying to be everything to everyone or a “Jack of all trades and master of none” is a sure path to mediocrity, or worse.

Today, after 92 years and many assassination attempts on our great medium, radio is still doing pretty darn well. If you are one of the people saying podcasting is going to kill radio, remember, the game isn’t over yet. I am betting on radio.

Rick Fink is President of ENS Media USA and business partner with Wayne Ens of Ens Media Inc. Rick can be reached by e-mail at rick@wensmedia.com.

Comments:

Paul Plack - Mar 2, 2019

Rick, I love radio and spent 30 years as an air talent and programmer, and your history of would-be assassins is mostly accurate. But the threat is greater this time around. Over the last 20 years radio has conceded what it used to tout as its big advantage: Live and Local. You said: “…we cannot lose sight of what radio does best. " I submit that horse has left the barn. Most of what radio does live now is prerecorded and generic, and not locally focused. Radio has put itself on the same playing field with on-demand audio from the internet, but carries much higher spot loads it can’t afford to cut. When I was a kid, radio was exciting and cool, and was where I and my friends discovered new music in a real-time, shared experience. My parents relied on it for news every morning. I now work in a technical field, and my coworkers are mostly in their 20s and 30s. They get their news, traffic and weather on their phones, listen to podcasts at work, and spend very little time with radio. If they’re representative, the clock is ticking as current radio listeners age out. Radio may soon be all cume and no TSL. So far, podcasts generally don’t compete with radio. Erica Mandy’s “theNewsWorthy” is a notable exception. If more podcasters head for this space, it will be a much bigger threat to radio than tapes or TV, regardless of what the RAB says.

Brilliantly written. I agree on all points, except… My kids dont know what a radio is. They both are straight A students in college. It’s not just about podcasting. It’s about Streaming. The availability of music, everywhere, for Free…without 15 minutes of commercials per hour. Listen, I love Radio. I make a living in the biz. I control a lot of airtime. That being said, we have to acknowledge that 20 year olds have so many relevant choices today that they didnt have when we were 20.

Paul, Thank you for reading and your comment. I can’t say that I totally disagree with you. Radio TSL has slipped and will continue to, in my opinion to a certain level. I don’t believe it’ll go much lower than it currently is. I have a 21, a 26 and a 30-year-old. Every time I get in there vehicle they have the radio dialed in. Not that they don’t listen to music on other mediums, they do, but Radio is everyone’s friend. That can’t be said about other outlets. (not necessarily Podcast). Radio is still cool and the Jocks are still considered as Icons (maybe that’s a stretch) but still considered as local celebrities. I am really speaking from an Advertising point of view and the strength of Radio. It’s as strong as ever when executed correctly. My knowledge of the Programming side is very limited due to lack of interest. It’s like me coaching a Soccer player or training a horse, I understand it, but I would screw up a good one! I rarely ever have an opinion on programming. I do thing Podcast compete with Radio as there is only so much time in a day.

David, Thanks for the reply. As I mentioned to Paul, my kids do listen to Radio as well as other platforms. They have to in order to get their allowance! jk. I agree that the youth is a challenge, but the point of the article was two-fold. 1) Simply that radio has always been proclaimed as dead or dying and it has always survived. They said the same thing with the advent of MTV and iPod’s, “but this is different”. Not really, in my opinion! and 2) I am tired of all the HYPE surrounding other mediums. Radio is still an extremely strong entertainment and advertising platform. In part, we are to blame, radio has done a horrible job of promoting itself! Still, I am betting on Radio! Remember, the game is not over yet! Never Stop Learning - Get Better Every Day!

It has been my experience that radio must do it all to survive… by becoming a multi media production, distribution and broadcasting service that combines new and old media. KCAA does it all. When a new online service or social media platform comes along, we try to find a way to incorporate it into our list of services and by doing so, we don’t beat them, we join them. A sizable percentage of people who produce podcasts would love to be on real radio but they don’t have the listener base to support their shows. I know because I hear from many of them. If radio had maintained the same diversity it had before the consolidations, many of these podcasters would have found a home on terrestrial radio and they would have larger audiences today in a more inclusive and ubiquitous media structure.